Prices and financialization: empirical evidence of housing market in Greater Santiago

Authors

Abstract

Based on a set of data from the housing market, an empirical evaluation is developed with an econometric approach on the statistical significance of the critical aspects mentioned by the literature on the financialization of housing to assess their impact on the price for Greater Santiago between 2009 and 2019. The results indicate that there is a statistical significance between housing price formation and financial elements such as mortgage interest rates, housing loans or shares in the stock market of real estate companies, among others. These results are spatially interpreted and developed in cartographies that seek to identify the places in the city where these findings are best expressed and the neighborhoods with the greatest spatial representativeness of the variables are identified. A north-south corridor of financialization associated with hospital infrastructure, retail development and major road infrastructure investment is identified. Using the ordinary least squares method and spatial autocorrelation, the article validates the more qualitative discourses of the financialization problem and visualizes the sectors of the city where this phenomenon has the greatest impact.

Keywords:

financialisation, prices, ordinary least squares, spatial autocorrelation

Author Biography

Jose Francisco Vergara-Perucich, Universidad de las Américas

Centro Producción del Espacio, Universidad de Las Américas

References

Aalbers, M. B. (2012). Subprime cities: The political economy of mortgage markets. Wiley - Blackwell.

______ (2015). The potential for financialization. Dialogues in Human Geography, 5(2), 214–219. https://doi.org/10.1177/2043820615588158

Aalbers, M. B., Hochstenbach, C., Bosma, J., y Fernandez, R. ( 2021). The death and life of private landlordism: How financialized homeownership gave birth to the buy-to-let market. Housing Theory & Society, 38(5). https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2020.1846610

ACAFI. (2020). Reporte inmobiliario 2019/20 1. https://www.acafi.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CBRE-ACAFI-2019_-1.pdf

______ (2021). Industria de fondos de inversión en Chile, 2020. https://www.acafi.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Presentacion-LAL-Fondos-de-Inversion-v190121.pdf

Anselin, L. (2010). Local indicators of spatial association-LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93–115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x

Cattaneo Pineda, R. A. (2011). Los fondos de inversión inmobiliaria y la producción privada de vivienda en Santiago de Chile: ¿Un nuevo paso hacia la financiarización de la ciudad? EURE, 37(112), 5–22. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0250-71612011000300001

Encinas, F., Truffello, R., Aguirre, C., e Hidalgo, R. (2019). Especulación, renta de suelo y ciudad neoliberal. O por qué con el libre mercado no basta. ARQ (Santiago), (102), 120-133. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0717-69962019000200120

Farha, L. (2020). Financialisation of housing. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights https://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Housing/Pages/FinancializationHousing.aspx

Figueroa, E. y Lever, G. (1992). Determinantes del precio de la vivienda en Santiago: una estimación hedónica. Estudios de Economía, 19(1), 67–84.

Freitas, F. G. d., Magnabosco, A. L., y Cunha, P. H. F. (2013). Chile: subsidios , crédito y déficit habitacional. Revista CEPAL, 1(110), 199–221.

Fujita, M., Krugman, P., y Venables, A. J. (2000). The spatial economy: Cities, regions, and international trade. Southern Economic Journal, 67(2), 491-493. https://doi.org/10.2307/1061487

Gasic, I. (2021). Producción inmobiliaria, intermediación financiera y reservas de suelo en Santiago de Chile. Scripta Nova, 25(1), 33–57. https://doi.org/10.1344/sn2021.25.32242

Graham, S. (2016). Vertical. Verso Books.

Hamilton, J. D. (2018). Why you should never use the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), 831–843. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00706

Harvey, D. (1978). The urban process under capitalism: a framework for analysis. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2(1–3), 101–131. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.1978.tb00738.x

______ (1985). The urbanization of capital. Blackwell.

______ (1987). Flexible accumulation through urbanization: reflections on “post-modernism”in the American city. Antipode, 19(3), 260–286. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8330.1987.tb00375.x

______ (2006). The limits to capital. Verso Books.

______ (2012). Rebel cities: From the right to the city to the urban revolution. Verso Books

______ (2014). Seventeen contradictions and the end of capitalism. The White Review, (150), 1–2. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004

Herrera, N. y López, E. (2021). Inversionistas de vivienda en el gran Santiago: una nueva ola de negocio inmobiliario. Scripta Nova, 25(1), 111–140. https://doi.org/10.1344/sn2021.25.32230

Heyman, A. V. y Sommervoll, D. E. (2019). House prices and relative location. Cities, 95, 102373. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.06.004

Hidalgo, R., Paulsen Bilbao, A., y Santana Rivas, L. (2016). El neoliberalismo subsidiario y la búsqueda de justicia e igualdad en el acceso a la vivienda social: El caso de Santiago de Chile (1970-2015). Andamios, 13(32), 57–81. https://doi.org/10.29092/uacm.v13i32.525

Hidalgo, R., Santana, D., y Alvarado Peterson, V. (2019). Geografías financiarizadas del extractivismo inmobiliario: lógicas financiero- inmobiliarias y estatales de la producción de lo urbano y la naturaleza en Chile. En Espaço e economia: geografia econômica e a economia política (pp. 385–404). Consequência.

Hulse, K. y Reynolds, M. (2018). Investification: Financialisation of housing markets and persistence of suburban socio-economic disadvantage. Urban Studies, 55(8), 1655–1671. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098017734995

Iturra, V. y Paredes, D. (2014). Construction of a spatial housing price index by estimating an almost ideal demand system. Tijdschrift Voor Economische En Sociale Geografie, 105(3), 301–314. https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12067

Jacobs, K. y Manzi, T. (2020). Conceptualising “financialisation”: governance, organisational behaviour and social interaction in UK housing. International Journal of Housing Policy, 20(2), 184–202. https://doi.org/10.1080/19491247.2018.1540737

Kornbluth, D. (2021). Gobernanza corporativa, capital financiero y empresariado de la construcción en Chile. Scripta Nova, 25(1), 83–110. https://doi.org/10.1344/sn2021.25.32231

López Quinteros, V. P. (2019). Desigualdad programada: el impacto de los programas de vivienda social en base a subsidio en Chile. Revista CIS, 1(26), 54–75.

Merrifield, A. (2002). Metromarxism: A marxist tale of the city. Routledge.

MINVU. (2018). Estadísticas habitacionales. http://www.observatoriourbano.cl/estadisticas-habitacionales/

Moreno Sarmiento, E. (2013). Predicción con series de tiempo y regresión. Panorama, 2(4), 36–58. https://doi.org/10.15765/pnrm.v2i4.262

Palma, K. (2017). Relatora de la ONU: En Chile la vivienda es una mercancía y no un derecho humano. Diario Universidad de Chile, 3–6. http://radio.uchile.cl/2017/05/02/relatora-de-la-onu-en-chile-la-vivienda-es-una-mercancia-y-no-un-derecho-humano/

Parrado, E., Cox, P., y Fuenzalida, M. (2009). Evolución de los precios de viviendas en Chile. Economía Chilena, 12(1), 51-68.

Quiroga, B. F. (2013). Hedonic estimation with unobserved characteristics: An application to the housing market in Santiago, Chile. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2356019

Robert, J. G. y Zahirovic-Herbert, V. (2021). The influence of privately initiated rezoning on housing prices. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-02-2021-0016

Rolnik, R. (2013). Late neoliberalism: The financialization of homeownership and housing rights. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 37(3), 1058–1066. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2427.12062

______ (2017). La guerra de los lugares. La colonización de tierra y la vivienda en la era de las finanzas. LOM.

Sabaté, I. (2016). Mortgage indebtedness and home repossessions as symptoms of the financialisation of housing provisioning in Spain. Critique of Anthropology, 36(2), 197–211. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308275X15614636

Sagner, A. (2010). Determinantes del precio de viviendas en Chile. El Trimestre Económico, 78(312):813-839.

Silva, C. G., y Vio, C. (2015). Los precios de vivienda y factores macroeconómicos: el caso de Chile. Economia Chilena, 18(1), 4-24.

Stein, S. (2019). Capital city: Gentrification and the real estate state. Verso Books.

TECHO. (2021). Catastro nacional de campamentos 2020-2021 de TECHO-Chile: histórica alza de familias viviendo en campamentos. TECHO-Chile. https://www.techo.org/chile/techo-al-dia/catastro-nacional-de-campamentos-2020-2021-de-techo-chile-historica-alza-de-familias-viviendo-en-campamentos/

Vergara, J. E. (2017). Verticalización. La edificación en altura en la región metropolitana de Santiago (1990-2014). Revista INVI, 32(90), 9–49. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-83582017000200009

Vergara-Perucich, J. F. (2020). ¿Qué tan caro es vivir en las capitales regionales? La necesidad de descentralizar las mediciones sobre el costo de vida en Chile. En V. Fuentes, E. Montecinos, y P. Güell (Eds.), El nuevo orden regional. Construcción social y gobernanza del territorio (pp. 145–158). Universidad Austral de Chile.

______ (2021a). Typological study of financialized housing in Chile: Verticalization in Estación Central. Civil Engineering and Architecture, 9(3), 611–624. https://doi.org/10.13189/cea.2021.090305

______ (2021b). Determinantes urbanos del precio de la vivienda en Chile: una exploración estadística. Revista Urbano, 24(43), 40-51. https://doi.org/10.22320/07183607.2021.24.43.04

Vergara-Perucich, J. F. y Aguirre-Nuñez, C. (2019a). Housing prices in unregulated markets: Study on verticalised dwellings in Santiago de Chile. Buildings, 10(1), 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings10010006

______ (2019b). Inversionistificación en América Latina: problematización del mercado de arriendo para el caso chileno. Hábitat y Sociedad, (12), 11–28. https://doi.org/10.12795/HabitatySociedad.2019.i12.02

Vergara-Perucich, J. F. y Boano, C. (2020). Exploring the contradiction in the ethos of urban practitioners under neoliberalism: A case study of housing production in Chile. Journal of Planning Education and Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X20971684

Vergara-Perucich, J. F., Encinas, F., Aguirre-Núñez, C., Truffello, R., y Ladrón de Guevara, F. (2020). Contribución a la economía política de la vivienda en Chile. RIL.

Voltes-Dorta, A. y Sánchez-Medina, A. (2020). Drivers of Airbnb prices according to property/room type, season and location: A regression approach. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 266–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.08.015

Wang, D. y Nicolau, J. L. (2017). Price determinants of sharing economy based accommodation rental: A study of listings from 33 cities on Airbnb.com. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 62, 120–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2016.12.007

Weber, R. (2010). Selling city futures: The financialization of urban redevelopment policy. Economic Geography, 86(3), 251-274. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2010.01077.x

Wilhelmsson, M., Ismail, M., y Warsame, A. (2021). Gentrification effects on housing prices in neighbouring areas. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-04-2021-0049